The most recent data on UK student visas, published Thursday 27 August 2026, shows that the number of visas issued in the second quarter of the year has seen a significant drop compared to the same period in 2025. A total of 31,222 Sponsored Study visas were issued to main applicants in the April-to-June period, down 43 per cent year-on-year. This follows a 32 per cent drop in first-quarter issuances compared to January-to-March 2025.
These trends may be less concerning than they first appear, as the timing of the UK’s academic year means that most visa issuances happen in the July-to-September quarter, and visa issuances in the first half of the year are not always strongly predictive of trends in students whose courses follow the traditional academic year. Nevertheless, the drop in visa issuances in Q1 and Q2 do suggest a potential decline in full-year student numbers at UK universities.
On a country-by-country basis, 19 of the top 20 sending countries to the UK saw a drop in student visa issuances, with only Italy seeing an increase in student visas compared to Q2 2025. However, the negative trend was strongest in the South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa regions: India, Nepal and Nigeria all saw drops of more than 50 per cent, while Pakistan saw a particularly large decline with visa issuances down 90 per cent compared to Q2 2025.
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While the main driver of the decrease was from a drop in applications, the number of rejected applications also grew and the Q2 visa refusal rate increased from 2.7 per cent to 7.2 per cent of final decisions(*). As with the overall number of applications, this does not necessarily mean that the full-year rejection rate will be above the Home Office’s new five per cent compliance threshold, as Q1 and Q2 typically have a higher proportion of refusals than the main Q3 application period.
(*) The refusal rate is based on issued visas divided by the number of issuances plus rejections. Withdrawn applications are not included on either side of the equation.
Like the application trends, refusal rates varied a lot from country to country. Pakistan again stood out as having a particularly high proportion of rejections, with an issuance rate of 66 per cent (i.e. refusal rate of 34 per cent), compared to a 95 per cent issuance rate in Q2 2025. Other major countries with a large number of visa rejections included Nigeria, Bangladesh and Ghana, with issuance rates of 75 per cent, 74 per cent and 58 per cent respectively in Q2.
As noted above, these figures only cover the first half of the year and we do not yet have data for the main bulk of students with September/October start dates. UK Visas and Immigration’s own analysis of student visa trends shows a much smaller 11 per cent drop in issued visas over the last 12 months (July 2025 to June 2026) compared to the previous 12-month period, illustrating the limited direct impact of Q1 and Q2 on the annual total. It is also not clear whether this trend will continue into the main application period in the third quarter of the year. However, if this combination of fewer applications and stricter visa approvals continues, we could see a decrease in new student numbers in 2026.
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The table below shows the number of issued visas in Q1 and Q2 for the top 20 sending countries, along with the trend compared to the same periods in 2025 and the rejection rates during this period. More data can be found at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables
| – | Issued Sponsored Study visas (main applicants) | Change vs same period in 2025 | Visa refusal rate (excluding withdrawn applications) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Q1 2026 (Jan-Mar) | Q2 2026 (Apr-Jun) | Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025 | Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025 | Q1 2026 (Jan-Mar) | Q2 2026 (Apr-Jun) |
| India | 14,499 | 7,378 | -25% | -51% | 6.7% | 9.1% |
| China (Mainland) | 1,652 | 5,260 | -13% | -31% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nepal | 3,638 | 2,133 | -18% | -53% | 3.4% | 7.5% |
| Nigeria | 3,586 | 2,148 | -33% | -51% | 22.6% | 24.9% |
| United States | 646 | 3,194 | 46% | -5% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Pakistan | 2,163 | 581 | -72% | -90% | 40.4% | 34.1% |
| Bangladesh | 952 | 514 | -53% | -61% | 28.3% | 26.5% |
| Germany | 121 | 807 | -14% | -15% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| Sri Lanka | 574 | 184 | -27% | -56% | 23.4% | 18.2% |
| Taiwan | 67 | 581 | 12% | -20% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ghana | 489 | 156 | -28% | -66% | 23.6% | 42.0% |
| Spain | 60 | 575 | -18% | -2% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| Thailand | 93 | 541 | -20% | -28% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| France | 68 | 539 | -6% | -4% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Saudi Arabia | 373 | 209 | -24% | -53% | 3.1% | 2.8% |
| Canada | 86 | 453 | 25% | -8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Kenya | 356 | 173 | -15% | -41% | 11.9% | 13.1% |
| Japan | 114 | 411 | -10% | -19% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Korea | 72 | 411 | 9% | -9% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Italy | 67 | 375 | -11% | 7% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| Total (all countries) | 32,554 | 31,222 | -32% | -43% | 13.1% | 7.3% |
